Lockbox Update 1/26

There has been major Bubble struggles this week, so this Lockbox has several teams "IN" that were not in Tuesday's full bracket.

IN: Oregon, New Mexico, Texas, Saint Louis

OUT: Marshall, UCF, Iowa State, Colorado State

Northwestern and Arkansas were close.


The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--18 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have six other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble (I'm looking at YOU, Alabama) or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 24 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/24

This week's bracket is up. It is still very fluid at the bottom, as it always is this time of year. I wound up taking Cincinnati, BYU, UCF, Iowa State, Mississippi, Marshall, NC State, and Colorado State from a group that also included New Mexico, Northwestern, Northern Iowa, UMass, Texas, Oregon, Stanford and a smattering of others.

Kansas and Ohio State moved onto the 1-seed line, as Baylor and Duke dropped down.

Full Lockbox coming late tomorrow or on Thursday.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (8): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota

Big East (8): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati

SEC (6): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Mississippi

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas State, Iowa State

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State

CUSA (4): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, UCF

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

First Full Lockbox

The season's first full Lockbox is up. For the uninitiated, this organizes teams by conference and is color-coded to reflect each team's "safety" in regards to the bracket. It is still early, and this is somewhat subjective, but the purpose here is get a sense of how many slots are truly up for grabs.

The Bubble by the Numbers
--31 Automatic Bids. That number will not change this season. Black italics means a team is the projected auto-bid for that conference.
--37 At-Large Bids (AL). That is also a static number.
--13 AL teams are listed in black (or are LOCKS). The black teams could miss in March, but it will take a total departure from what they have shown to this point.
--I have 12 other AL teams listed in blue, which means they are on their way, but have a bit more work to do. Some of them will solidify and some will slide onto to the Bubble or out of the bracket entirely. I think of these teams this way: if they win they games they "should," they will likely make it at this point.
--That means 25 AL slots are taken, leaving the Bubble at 13 at the moment. Generally, this number will shrink as we head toward Selection Sunday.. Bubble-IN teams are in green, Bubble-OUT teams are in red.

Bracket Update 1/17

It is less than eight weeks until Selection Sunday, and the first bracket of the season is up. It is always wild and woolly at the bottom, and with 37 At-large teams and it being January and all, it is even wilder and woollier than it will be closer to Selection Sunday.

At the bottom, I took teams like Northwestern, Stanford, Xavier, Florida State, Marshall, BYU, Denver, NC State, New Mexico, and Minnesota over a host of others too long to list out. That said, Saint Joseph's, Texas, LSU, Ohio, and UCF were right there.

An full-color Lockbox is on deck for tomorrow, with the season's first "Bubble By the Numbers" post.

Multi-Bid Conference Breakdown

Big Ten (9): Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, Minnesota

Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia, Marquette, Louisville

ACC (5): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, NC State

SEC (5): Kentucky, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida

Mountain West (4): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico

Big 12 (4): Baylor, Kansas, Missouri, Kansas State

West Coast (3): St. Mary’s, Gonzaga, BYU

CUSA (3): Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall

A-10 (3): Dayton, Temple, Xavier

Pac-12 (2): Cal, Stanford

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

Sun Belt (2): Middle Tennessee, Denver

Pre-Lockbox

This preliminary Lockbox houses teams that are 1) current conference leaders (tie-breaker to the RPI) or 2) very likely to be in the bracket in two months time based on performance to this point in the season. And, I'm talking about no-brainers here. No Bubble Boys listed on this one.

There are some teams included here that have major questions surrounding them (Wisconsin's B1G struggles, Florida's lack of beefy wins, etc), but in those two cases, the efficiency numbers point to ultimate success. Wisconsin is #3 overall in the Pomeroy ratings, sport the nations lowest Turnover%, the nation's best EffectiveFG% defense, and #2 overall Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Gators are rated #13 overall with the #1 offense. For now, those two get the benefit of the doubt...for now. Wiscy will have to turn around that conference record and Florida will have to win a lot of SEC games. And, I expect both will do that...for now.

There are a couple of other teams that could fall out of favor, but the purpose here is to get a feel for how many slots are actually out there at any given time. In this case, there are 23 At-Large teams that I would deem "stunners" if they don't show up in March. That means everyone else is playing for about 14 At-Large slots if they fail to win their automatic bid.

Again, this is a pre-Lockbox, so a full one comes later next week. The season's first bracket is coming on Monday.